2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Outlined = current league week
Sign in Sign up
Games Injuries Depth News What changed Leaders Matchups Teams Notes
Games Injuries Depth News What changed Leaders Matchups Teams Notes
2026 · Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT Raymond James Stadium 77°F, wind 15 mph, sunny Final 26–19
Depth
Game total
38.5
points, both teams
OffensePittsburgh Steelers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team total2018.5
Plays a game58.059.4
Passes vs usual+4.4-2.1
Days' rest710

Passes vs usual: points of pass rate above or below what teams usually call on the same down, distance and score.

Game and team totals: consensus of 11 books via The Odds API, as of Sun Oct 18 11:00 AM EDT.

Beyond Usage · Pittsburgh Steelers Jaylen WarrenRB
+48scrimmage yards a game

Over his last 4 games, he has gained 48 scrimmage yards a game more than his workload usually produces.

Beyond Usage The scrimmage yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 48 scrimmage yards a game more than his workload usually produces. That's more than his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count

Key players

who each offense runs through
Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers
TB defense allows a game WR 139yds · 31st over usual RB 60yds · 26th over usual
TB: one of the 8 toughest against running backs this season, adjusted for who they have played.

Backs with a real workload have gained 83% of their recent average against defenses like that since 2016, and beaten it in 32% of games. Against the middle of the league, 42% have.

TB: one of the 8 toughest against receivers this season, adjusted for who they have played.

Receivers with a real workload have gained 90% of their recent average against defenses like that since 2016, and beaten it in 40% of games. Against the middle of the league, 41% have.

Pittsburgh Steelers #4 D. MetcalfWR WR1
8.2 tgt19% of targets95% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs CIN 5 tgt, 3 rec, 31 rec yds Wk 4 vs CLE 9 tgt, 5 rec, 115 rec yds Wk 5 vs IND 4 tgt, 3 rec, 12 rec yds1 car, 11 rush yds Wk 6 vs TB 15 tgt, 11 rec, 93 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 9 receiving yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 19% of targets over his last 4, 21% this season Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the receiving yards it usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 56 a game, up from 52 in the 16 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 0.8 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs TB: 93 receiving yards, 11 catches on 15 targets
  • 1.79 yards per route run in 2025, 32nd of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • TB allow 17.6 targets a game to receivers, 20th most
  • Vs TB: 93 receiving yards in his one game, 60 in all his games
Pittsburgh Steelers #30 J. WarrenRB RB1
15.8 car5 tgt72% of carries86% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs CIN 17 car, 127 rush yds3 rec, 49 rec yds Wk 4 vs CLE 17 car, 93 rush yds3 rec, 33 rec yds Wk 5 vs IND 15 car, 101 rush yds6 rec, 87 rec yds Wk 6 vs TB 14 car, 50 rush yds2 rec, 28 rec yds
Beyond Usage The scrimmage yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 48 scrimmage yards a game more than his workload usually produces. That's more than his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 72% of carries over his last 4, 69% this season Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the scrimmage yards it usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 94 a game, up from 73 in the 16 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 1.8 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs TB: 50 rushing yards on 14 carries, 2 catches for 28 yards
  • 5.5 yards a carry, 3rd of 39 backs
  • Vs TB: 50 rushing yards in his one game, 51 in all his games
Pittsburgh Steelers #17 G. BernardWR WR2
6 tgt15% of targets60% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs CIN 1 tgt, 1 rec, 14 rec yds Wk 4 vs CLE 2 tgt, 2 rec, 11 rec yds Wk 5 vs IND 9 tgt, 6 rec, 80 rec yds1 car, 4 rush yds Wk 6 vs TB 12 tgt, 11 rec, 87 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 1 receiving yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 15% of targets over his last 4 Second week A change in his role that held for a second straight week. The same move as week 6, and it held a second week. How we count
  • 1.2 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs TB: 87 receiving yards, 11 catches on 12 targets, 1 touchdown
  • 4.8 yards after the catch per catch, 25th of 74 receivers and tight ends
  • TB allow 17.6 targets a game to receivers, 20th most
  • Vs TB: 87 receiving yards in his one game, 45 in all his games
  • Steelers news: The time is now for Germie BernardBehind the Steel Curtain
Steelers news this week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers
PIT defense allows a game RB 91yds · 20th over usual WR 144yds · 20th over usual
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #7 B. IrvingRB RB1
17.8 car2.5 tgt62% of carries61% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs MIN 15 car, 46 rush yds2 rec, 12 rec yds Wk 4 vs GB 16 car, 61 rush yds0 rec, 0 rec yds Wk 5 vs DAL 21 car, 165 rush yds2 rec, 10 rec yds Wk 6 vs PIT 19 car, 46 rush yds2 rec, 3 rec yds
Beyond Usage The scrimmage yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 1 scrimmage yards a game more than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 62% of carries over his last 4, 58% this season Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the scrimmage yards it usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 95 a game, down from 97 in the 10 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 3.6 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs PIT: 46 rushing yards on 19 carries, 2 catches for 3 yards
  • 4.7 yards a carry, 11th of 39 backs
  • With Sean Tucker out: 57% of the carries in the 11 games he missed since 2024, 48% with him
  • Vs PIT: 46 rushing yards in his one game, 66 in all his games
  • Vs Patrick Graham: 25 rushing yards a game over 2, 66 in all his games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #2 E. EgbukaWR WR1
9.5 tgt23% of targets86% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs MIN 9 tgt, 5 rec, 62 rec yds Wk 4 vs GB 4 tgt, 2 rec, 13 rec yds Wk 5 vs DAL 9 tgt, 6 rec, 38 rec yds1 car, 14 rush yds Wk 6 vs PIT 16 tgt, 7 rec, 48 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 19 receiving yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 23% of targets over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the receiving yards it usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 52 a game, down from 63 in the 17 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 1.2 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs PIT: 48 receiving yards, 7 catches on 16 targets, 1 touchdown
  • 1.75 yards per route run in 2025, 33rd of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • PIT allow 17.8 targets a game to receivers, 17th most
  • Vs PIT: 48 receiving yards in his one game, 51 in all his games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #14 C. Godwin Jr.WR WR2
5.5 tgt15% of targets81% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs MIN 4 tgt, 3 rec, 25 rec yds Wk 4 vs GB 7 tgt, 6 rec, 31 rec yds Wk 5 vs DAL 3 tgt, 3 rec, 37 rec yds1 car, 3 rush yds Wk 6 vs PIT 8 tgt, 4 rec, 37 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 6 receiving yards a game more than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 15% of targets over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the receiving yards it usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 28 a game, down from 41 in the 9 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • Last game, vs PIT: 37 receiving yards, 4 catches on 8 targets
  • 1.35 yards per route run in 2025, 73rd of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • PIT allow 17.8 targets a game to receivers, 17th most
  • Vs PIT: 37 receiving yards in his one game, 52 in all his games
Buccaneers news this week

Data and context only, never advice. By using Black Swan Stats you agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Not affiliated with the NFL or any team.

Read them