Kickoff Promo to
NFL stats that show the work behind the result.
Black Swan Stats puts every NFL game of the week on one page and measures each player's workload apart from what he did with it. Sign up through Sun, Oct 31, 2027 and it costs $2.99 a month, or $29 a year, for your first year.
In brief. Black Swan Stats is a subscription NFL stats site: every game of the week on one page, with each player's workload measured apart from his results. The Kickoff Promo runs from September 29, 2026 through October 31, 2027: sign up in that window and pay $2.99 a month or $29 a year for your first year, then $6.99 a month or $69 a year. Every plan starts with a 7-day free trial.
A box score tells you what happened, not what it was built on.
Two receivers finish with 90 yards. One saw eleven targets, three of them in the red zone. The other caught one blown coverage for 70. The box score calls it a tie.
It isn't one. For every game since 2022 we fit what each kind of work is worth, from each play's targets, air yards, carries and red-zone touches, and put a second number beside every player's yards: Usage Yards, what his work was worth in an average game. The gap between the two is Beyond Usage.
Workload is the part a coaching staff chooses. The gap is everything else: a missed tackle, a busted coverage, a quarterback on his best day. We print them apart so you can read them apart.
Eight numbers of our own, and how to read them
Each one carries the swan wherever it appears, beside the standard stat and never in its place. Here is what goes into each, what it looks like on the page, and what it tells you about the player. The exact definitions and floors are on How we count.
Week 3's Swans
A black swan is the result nobody's recent role allowed for. These are last week's games furthest past what the player's last four games' usage was worth: two spreads or more, split into the bigger job he got that day (role) and what he did with it (beyond).
- 1 Drake London role +43 · beyond +114 Swan 194 rec yds against 37, what his last four games' usage was worth, Week 3 Role +43: this game's Usage Yards 80 · beyond +114 Two spreads of that reference: 61 The next game has kept about a third of the role part and about a tenth of the beyond part 2026 · fit usage fit v1 2026 How we count 194rec yds Swan 194 rec yds against 37, what his last four games' usage was worth, Week 3 Role +43: this game's Usage Yards 80 · beyond +114 Two spreads of that reference: 61 The next game has kept about a third of the role part and about a tenth of the beyond part 2026 · fit usage fit v1 2026 How we count
- 2 Kenyon Sadiq role +50 · beyond +37 Swan 105 rec yds against 18, what his last four games' usage was worth, Week 3 Role +50: this game's Usage Yards 68 · beyond +37 Two spreads of that reference: 44 The next game has kept about a third of the role part and about a tenth of the beyond part 2026 · fit usage fit v1 2026 How we count 105rec yds Swan 105 rec yds against 18, what his last four games' usage was worth, Week 3 Role +50: this game's Usage Yards 68 · beyond +37 Two spreads of that reference: 44 The next game has kept about a third of the role part and about a tenth of the beyond part 2026 · fit usage fit v1 2026 How we count
- 3 Brock Bowers role +64 · beyond +15 Swan 116 rec yds against 38, what his last four games' usage was worth, Week 3 Role +64: this game's Usage Yards 101 · beyond +15 Two spreads of that reference: 44 The next game has kept about a third of the role part and about a tenth of the beyond part 2026 · fit usage fit v1 2026 How we count 116rec yds Swan 116 rec yds against 38, what his last four games' usage was worth, Week 3 Role +64: this game's Usage Yards 101 · beyond +15 Two spreads of that reference: 44 The next game has kept about a third of the role part and about a tenth of the beyond part 2026 · fit usage fit v1 2026 How we count
Reading one player
Say a receiver's page shows 61 receiving yards a game this season beside Usage Yards 52, a Beyond Usage of +9 over his last four with the bar unfilled, a Second week tag on a rise in his share of the targets, and Funnel: WR · 2nd most on the defense he faces this week.
Read together: his role grew two weeks running and the staff kept it; he has produced about what that role is worth, no more (the small plus is inside the noise, which is why the bar is empty); and the defense in front of him has allowed the second-most yards to receivers in the league. Three facts about his week, each with its source one tap away. What you make of them is yours.
Every game on one page
- The injury report by practice day, official sources first, and beside each questionable or doubtful tag how often players with the same tag and the same last practice have played since 2023.
- When a starter sits: who took his targets or carries in the games he missed before.
- Both coaching staffs: who calls the plays, and how they call them leading, trailing and in the red zone, against the league average.
- Snap, route, target and carry shares over the last four games and the season.
- What each defense allows by position, ranked against the league, with its Funnel.
- Every player's record against this opponent and against the defensive play-caller he faces, followed across teams.
- Kickoff weather for outdoor games, and the week's news from national outlets, both club sites and each city's coverage.
Every week
- What changed
- Every change in role, depth chart and injury status, sorted by cause. A backup who played more because the starter sat goes on the injury line; the moves a staff chose lead.
- Leaders
- The top 50 in passing, rushing, receiving and scrimmage yards, for the week and the season, and the league's Beyond Usage leaders.
- Your players
- Star up to 60 players and your home page opens with them. An email when one of them gets an injury designation or moves to the top of the depth chart.
- Two emails
- Tuesday's recap of the week just played and Friday's preview after the final injury report.
- Downloads
- Any player's game log, a game's usage table and the injury board as CSV.
The rules we keep
- The box score comes first. Our numbers sit beside it, marked, and never replace it.
- No floor, no number. A figure that has not earned its place is left out, not padded in.
- Every number shows its sample: the games, the span and the standard error, one tap away.
- We measure games that were played. We publish no forecasts, no rankings of who to start and no tips.
- Every source is named, and every headline links to the publisher who wrote it.
Kickoff Promo
The Kickoff Promo runs from through . Sign up through Sun, Oct 31, 2027 and keep the promo price for your first year: twelve monthly payments of $2.99, or one year at $29. After that it renews at $6.99 a month or $69 a year. Every feature is included.
Cancel any time from your account page.
The season and the offseason, 19% less than paying monthly.
Card required to start a trial; you are not charged until it ends, and cancelling before then costs nothing. Prices in USD; tax added where it applies. Billing is handled by Stripe.
Questions
What is Black Swan Stats?
An NFL stats site. Every game of the week gets one page with the injury report by practice day, both coaching staffs' tendencies, each player's usage, what each defense allows by position, every player's history against the opponent, and the week's news. Beside the box score it adds a few numbers of its own that separate a player's workload from what he did with it.
What is the Kickoff Promo?
Kickoff Promo is $2.99 a month or $29 a year instead of $6.99 and $69, for anyone who signs up before it ends on October 31, 2027. A monthly plan keeps $2.99 for twelve months and an annual plan keeps $29 for its first year; after that each renews at the list price. Every feature is included.
How is it different from a box score or a fantasy app?
A box score reports results. We also measure the work behind them: Usage Yards is what a player's targets, air yards, carries and red-zone touches were worth in an average game, fitted play by play on every game since 2022, and Beyond Usage is how far he went past it. Usage Yards is the number that holds: over a player's last four games it has tracked his next game as closely as his actual yards have, and Role, the change in it, leads our pages. Every one of our numbers has a published floor and a published record of how well it carries over, and a number that does not clear its floor is not printed.
Do you tell me who to start or who to play?
No. We report what happened, what our sources say and how much evidence stands behind each number. The decisions are yours.
Is there a free trial?
Yes, 7 days. A card is required to start it; you are not charged until it ends, and cancelling before then costs nothing. Cancel any time from your account page.
Where does the data come from?
Stats, play-by-play, rosters, depth charts and official injury reports come from nflverse (CC BY 4.0), with FTN charting via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0). Weather comes from the National Weather Service. News comes from national outlets, all 32 club sites and a city outlet for every team, always linked to the publisher.
How often is it updated?
Every hour during the week: injury reports each practice day, depth charts and news daily, and scores and box scores on game days as soon as they post.
What can I see without a plan?
Every player's page (his game log, per-game lines and this week's game), the week's biggest role changes, How we count, and the Tuesday email.
Not affiliated with the NFL or any team. Stats from nflverse, CC BY 4.0.