2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Outlined = current league week
Sign in Sign up
Games Injuries Depth News What changed Leaders Matchups Teams Notes
Games Injuries Depth News What changed Leaders Matchups Teams Notes
2026 · Week 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys

Thu Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT AT&T Stadium Roof closed Final 24–16
Depth
Game total
48.5
points, both teams
OffenseTampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas Cowboys
Team total2028.5
Plays a game59.859.1
Passes vs usual-1.5+4.1

Thursday night, the only game on. The Cowboys are on a short week, 4 days' rest. The Buccaneers are on a short week, 4 days' rest.

Passes vs usual: points of pass rate above or below what teams usually call on the same down, distance and score.

Game and team totals: consensus of 11 books via The Odds API, as of Thu Oct 8 10:59 AM EDT.

Beyond Usage · Dallas Cowboys CeeDee LambWR
+32receiving yards a game

Over his last 4 games, he has gained 32 receiving yards a game more than his workload usually produces.

Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 32 receiving yards a game more than his workload usually produces. That's more than his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count

Key players

who each offense runs through
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers
DAL defense allows a game WR 168yds · 9th over usual RB 97yds · 3rd over usual
DAL: one of the 8 softest against running backs this season, adjusted for who they have played.

Backs with a real workload have gained 105% of their recent average against defenses like that since 2016, and beaten it in 50% of games. Against the middle of the league, 42% have.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers #2 E. EgbukaWR WR1
9.5 tgt20% of targets85% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs MIN 9 tgt, 5 rec, 62 rec yds Wk 4 vs GB 4 tgt, 2 rec, 13 rec yds Wk 5 vs DAL 9 tgt, 6 rec, 38 rec yds1 car, 14 rush yds Wk 6 vs PIT 16 tgt, 7 rec, 48 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 10 receiving yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 20% of targets over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the receiving yards it usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 48 a game, down from 63 in the 17 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count Second week A change in his role that held for a second straight week. The same move as week 4, and it held a second week. How we count
  • 1.2 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs PIT: 48 receiving yards, 7 catches on 16 targets, 1 touchdown
  • 1.75 yards per route run in 2025, 33rd of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • With Jalen McMillan on ir: 25% of the targets in the 16 games he missed since 2024, 16% with him
  • DAL allow 17.8 targets a game to receivers, 17th most
  • Vs DAL: 38 receiving yards in his one game, 51 in all his games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #15 T. JohnsonWR WR4
2 tgt7% of targets33% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs MIN 2 tgt, 1 rec, 8 rec yds Wk 4 vs GB 2 tgt, 2 rec, 17 rec yds1 car, 10 rush yds Wk 5 vs DAL 1 tgt, 1 rec, 64 rec yds Wk 6 vs PIT 3 tgt, 2 rec, 7 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 5 receiving yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 7% of targets over his last 4
  • Last game, vs PIT: 7 receiving yards, 2 catches on 3 targets
  • 1.09 yards per route run in 2025, 96th of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • With Jalen McMillan on ir: 10% of the targets in the 14 games he missed since 2024, 4% with him
  • DAL allow 17.8 targets a game to receivers, 17th most
  • Vs DAL: 64 receiving yards in his one game, 22 in all his games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #7 B. IrvingRB RB1
17.8 car2.5 tgt58% of carries62% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs MIN 15 car, 46 rush yds2 rec, 12 rec yds Wk 4 vs GB 16 car, 61 rush yds0 rec, 0 rec yds Wk 5 vs DAL 21 car, 165 rush yds2 rec, 10 rec yds Wk 6 vs PIT 19 car, 46 rush yds2 rec, 3 rec yds
Beyond Usage The scrimmage yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 7 scrimmage yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 58% of carries over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the scrimmage yards it usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 82 a game, down from 97 in the 10 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 3.6 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs PIT: 46 rushing yards on 19 carries, 2 catches for 3 yards
  • 4.7 yards a carry, 11th of 39 backs
  • Vs DAL: 117 rushing yards a game over 2, 66 in all his games
  • Vs Christian Parker: 165 rushing yards in his one game, 66 in all his games
Buccaneers news this week
Dallas Cowboys Cowboys
TB defense allows a game WR 106yds · 32nd over usual RB 63yds · 23rd over usual
TB: one of the 8 toughest against receivers this season, adjusted for who they have played.

Receivers with a real workload have gained 90% of their recent average against defenses like that since 2016, and beaten it in 40% of games. Against the middle of the league, 41% have.

Dallas Cowboys #88 C. LambWR WR1
13 tgt32% of targets81% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs BAL 8 tgt, 7 rec, 112 rec yds Wk 4 vs HOU 21 tgt, 17 rec, 189 rec yds1 car, -6 rush yds Wk 5 vs TB 5 tgt, 2 rec, 9 rec yds Wk 6 vs GB 18 tgt, 9 rec, 70 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 32 receiving yards a game more than his workload usually produces. That's more than his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 32% of targets over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the receiving yards it usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 92 a game, up from 75 in the 13 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 2.2 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs GB: 70 receiving yards, 9 catches on 18 targets
  • 2.38 yards per route run in 2025, 6th of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • TB allow 14.5 targets a game to receivers, 30th most
  • Vs TB: 57 receiving yards a game over 2, 84 in all his games
  • Vs Todd Bowles: 105 receiving yards in his one game, 84 in all his games
Dallas Cowboys #3 G. PickensWR WR2
9.5 tgt20% of targets83% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs BAL 11 tgt, 7 rec, 82 rec yds Wk 4 vs HOU 3 tgt, 2 rec, 75 rec yds Wk 5 vs TB 13 tgt, 9 rec, 130 rec yds Wk 6 vs GB 11 tgt, 6 rec, 73 rec yds
Beyond Usage The receiving yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 2 receiving yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 20% of targets over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the receiving yards it usually produces. His workload is his targets, how far downfield they were and those inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 58 a game, down from 66 in the 17 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 1.2 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs GB: 73 receiving yards, 6 catches on 11 targets
  • 2.35 yards per route run in 2025, 8th of 154 receivers and tight ends
  • TB allow 14.5 targets a game to receivers, 30th most
  • Vs TB: 130 receiving yards in his one game, 75 in all his games
Dallas Cowboys #33 J. WilliamsRB RB1
15.2 car3.2 tgt66% of carries75% snaps
last 4 Wk 3 vs BAL 19 car, 98 rush yds2 rec, 5 rec yds Wk 4 vs HOU 19 car, 62 rush yds5 rec, 21 rec yds Wk 5 vs TB 12 car, 45 rush yds2 rec, 17 rec yds Wk 6 vs GB 11 car, 41 rush yds2 rec, 9 rec yds
Beyond Usage The scrimmage yards he gains beyond what his workload usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games, he has gained 10 scrimmage yards a game fewer than his workload usually produces. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about a third of a gap has carried into the next game. How we count
  • 66% of carries over his last 4 Role Whether his workload is growing or shrinking, counted in the scrimmage yards it usually produces. His workload is his carries and targets, how far downfield the targets were and his touches inside the 20. Over his last 4 games it has been worth 87 a game, down from 89 in the 14 games before. That's within his usual week-to-week ups and downs. In past seasons, about half of a change in role has shown up in the next game. How we count
  • 4.5 touches a game inside the 20 over his last 4
  • Last game, vs GB: 41 rushing yards on 11 carries, 2 catches for 9 yards, 1 touchdown
  • 3.7 yards a carry, 23rd of 39 backs
  • Vs TB: 29 rushing yards a game over 2, 52 in all his games
  • Vs Todd Bowles: 12 rushing yards in his one game, 52 in all his games
Cowboys news this week

Data and context only, never advice. By using Black Swan Stats you agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Not affiliated with the NFL or any team.

Read them